Thursday, March 31, 2011

This is a most "economic view" of the value of humanity! Recognizing the risk of extinction...and other low probability events.

http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.html
Abstract
In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. 
The probability of these events may be very low, 
but the expected value of preventing them could be high, 
as it represents the value of all future human lives. 
We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, 
by way of example, 
estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction-level asteroid impacts.

Here's a bit of the summary!
"We may be poorly equipped to recognize or plan for extinction risks (Yudkowsky, 2007). 

We may not be good at grasping the significance of 
very large numbers (catastrophic outcomes) or 
very small numbers (probabilities) over large timeframes. 

We struggle with estimating the probabilities of rare or unprecedented events (Kunreuther et al., 2001). 

Policymakers may not plan far beyond current political administrations and rarely do risk assessments value the existence of future generations.18 

We may unjustifiably discount the value of future lives. 

Finally, extinction risks are market failures where an individual enjoys no perceptible benefit from his or her investment in risk reduction.  (Had to read this three times...basically faced with extinction, not much anyone can do to avoid it!)

Human survival may thus be a good requiring deliberate policies to protect."

I'd say with some authority that the type of investment in human survival that this paper suggests ought to be done, is not and will not be done.  "If it didn't happen yesterday, why would it happen tomorrow" is the INERTIA one works against when investing to avoid low probability hi impact events.

...like oil well blow outs, big earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear reactors that are no longer functional...not something that happens very often...or with any frequency..
FRISH