Hal: You said:
"You just assume that the future is going to be like the past. That is not a good methodology, not just for investing but for social policy."
***I agree, for investing. However, the future will be far worse than the past.
Could there be, for instance, a new, renewable energy source that could replace carbon-based fuels and thus ameliorate the single greatest threat to life on earth, global warming? Right now, the answer is no, but what about 10 years or more from now?
***Sure. Why not? Why not Magic? You can put your eggs in a basket that has yet to be woven, be my guest, have all the kids you can handle and then some...
It seems to me that the most effective way to change human behavior in the short run would be to do everything possible to encourgae technological change, since that is where solutions to our problems could come from.
*** So, your solution is to do what we've always done, use technology to try to overcome the problems we face since that is what "worked for us" in the past, why not the future?
HOWEVER, WE'RE FINDING, TODAY, THAT IT DIDN'T WORK IN THE PAST.
Technological "solutions" are what cause climate chaos, deforestation, pollution from mines, over fishing, etc. etc. etc.
Hmmm, seems you advocate doing what we've always done.
Isn't that what you accused me of?
I'll suggest a little something that may actually help:
Given the damage it causes, what is the true cost of OIL, since we don't and haven't paid for much more than the extraction, refining and distribution? No where is the damage caused by oil paid for...except in the degradation of the environment.
So, if we changed the accounting systems to account for environmental degradation, we'd immediately discover we couldn't afford to put oil into cars...it has much higher and better use in other less polluting ways...see any capitalists clamouring for TRUE COST ACCOUNTING? Me Neither!
From Hal who believes the reports of the demise of the human race have been somewhat exaggerated.
***Of course Hal. That we know. Keep up the optimism and don't discard the rosey glasses!
Hal, If "You just assume that the future is going to be like the past. That is not a good methodology".
***I agree. That's just what you are doing. Technology is the curse that brought us here, you advocate for MORE of it. Please let your kids know.
